According to multiple sources, the United States and Israel launched large-scale military strikes inside Iran on February 28, sharply escalating regional tensions and sending shockwaves through global energy markets.
In the immediate aftermath, dozens of oil tankers bound for the Persian Gulf changed course to avoid the region. The Qatari government urged shipowners to suspend maritime operations, while a shipping industry alert said the U.S. Navy had advised tankers to steer clear of nearby waters, warning that safe passage could not be guaranteed.
Real-time data from MarineTraffic showed vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plunged by 70% late February 28. Analysts at Kpler said many ships had turned back, rerouted, or remained in the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are expected to be hardest hit, as most of their crude oil and LNG exports transit the strait.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps later announced a ban on all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, calling the waterway unsafe. The strait, linking the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, carries nearly one-fifth of global daily oil consumption — about 20 million barrels — making it the world’s most critical energy corridor.
Energy analysts warn that a prolonged closure would represent a worst-case scenario for global oil markets. Even the threat of disruption has been enough to rattle shipowners and traders. Tanker monitoring firm TankerTrackers.com said 55 tankers remain in Iranian waters with uncertain status.
Although Brent crude futures have yet to reopen for trading, market fears are mounting. Analysts say limited strikes could push oil prices toward $80 per barrel, while a sustained supply disruption could send prices significantly higher. A rise to $100 per barrel could add an estimated 0.6–0.7 percentage points to global inflation.
Higher energy costs would likely feed through to fuel, transportation, and manufacturing prices, complicating central bank policy decisions and increasing recession risks worldwide.
Major oil producers are responding. Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing to boost exports and redirect supplies to overseas storage. However, most Gulf oil exports lack alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the fragility of global energy supply chains.
